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A large scientific documentation is to-date available about the appearance of anomalous space-time patterns of geophysical parameters measured from days to week before earthquakes occurrence. Nevertheless up to now no one measurable parameter, no one observational methodology has demonstrated to be sufficiently reliable and effective for the implementation of an operational earthquake prediction system. To this aim, the combined use of different observations/parameters together with the refinement of data analysis methods are expected to give major improvements in order to reduce false alarm rates and improve reliability and precision (in the space-time domain) of predictions.
In this frontier research field EU and Russia are playing, since years, a worldwide scientific leading role and dispose of unique, satellite and ground based, Earth Observation systems and capabilities.
PRE-EARTHQUAKES intends to commit EU and Russian researchers to integrate different ground and satellite data to improve, by cross-validating, their methodologies, in order:
Different ground and satellite based observations, different data analysis methods, different measured parameter will be compared and integrated in order to move the research in this filed beyond its present frontiers.
Specific scientific objectives of the project will be investigated to demonstrate to which extent a systematic integration of independent observations can improve (possibly up to a pre-operational level of precision and reliability) our capabilities of short-term earthquake prediction which are presently based mostly on a single parameter/observation methods.
To these aims the project will be realized following 3 mainstreams devoted:
Main Earth Observation data products which PRE-EARTHQUAKES will generate, integrate and disseminate are summarized in the following table.
Highly seismic and well monitored regions (Sakhalin region in Far Eastern Russia, Italy and Turkey in Europe) have been selected as suitable areas where the integration of different observations and methodologies is expected to offer the best results.
The project also intends to contribute to the cooperation process started within the EU-Russian Space Dialogues’ Earth observation working group, by consolidating and further developing scientific cooperation among European and Russian researchers involved in the study of earthquake preparatory phenomena on the basis of Satellite and ground based Earth Observation Systems. The project will profit of the unique opportunity, offered by ESA and ROSKOSOMOS, to have access for free to their satellite data archives in order to integrate, compare, improve different methods and observations relevant for the study of preparatory phase of the earthquakes. 3 Russian and 3 European Scientific institutions, among the most worldwide quoted for this kind of studies will constitute the partnership of the project.
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Project funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 263502.
This publication reflects the views only of the authors. The EC cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained herein.
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