PRE-EARTHQUAKES Research Activities 印刷

PRE-EARTHQUAKES research activities are intended to investigate and demonstrate to which extent a systematic integration of independent observations can improve (possibly up to a pre-operational level of precision and reliability) our capabilities of short-term earthquake prediction which are presently based mostly on a single parameter/observation methods.

To achieve this scientific objective the project will proceed following a few simple actions:

  1. Starting data collection and product generation for selected test case (earthquakes in Italy, Turkey, Sakhalin region) in the past;
  2. Setting-up of the Pre Earthquakes Geoportal (PEG), where independent data/products can be shared and compared, setting-up of the web site;
  3. Evaluation of system performances by integrating/comparing different data/methods always using a validation/confutation approach, in order to identify anomalous transients actually related to earthquakes occurrence;
  4. Starting real-time monitoring on selected areas on the basis of the best choice of parameters/methods done at point 3.

The following RTD Work Packages and Tasks were identified and assigned precise objectives and leading partners:

WP20: Products generation

This WP is devoted to the systematic generation of geo-referenced data analysis products (maps, graphics, etc.) originated by the observation (in the low atmosphere, ionosphere and lithosphere) of (potential) earthquakes’ precursors.

Parameters to be studied, in presence (validation) and absence (confutation) of significant earthquakes have been divided in three different classes according to the part of the Earth system they are mostly related. These three classes are directly reflected in the internal organization of this WP in:

  • Task 20.10: Near Surface/Low atmosphere observations
  • Task 20.20: Ionospheric observations
  • Task 20.30: Lithospheric observations

WP30: Integration and Cross Validation

The aim of this WP is the integration of different data products which have been originated by partners using different data and methodologies (WP 20). Common I/O formats will be defined as well as suitable validation/confutation procedures for the assessment of possible space-time relationships among selected (or joint) parameters variations and earthquake occurrence.

The integration activity will be mainly focused on the following tasks:

  • Task 30.10: Definition of PEG functions and I/O interfaces
  • Task 30.20: Off-line test cases preparation
  • Task 30.30: Implementation
    • Subtask 30.32: Real time test cases preparation. This subtask is devoted to the evaluation, for each of the 3 identified test areas (Italy, Turkey, Sakhalin region) of suitable parameters to be integrated during the real-time integration phase of the project.
    • Subtask 30.33: Real time integration (selected areas). This subtask is devoted to the integration and cross-validation of independent data products and methodologies. Real-time experiment
  • Task 30.40: System performances evaluation and integration procedures adjustment.

During the whole project activity and life, PRE-EARTHQUAKES Researchers and Scientists as well as Networking Members commit themselves to the respect of the PRE-EARTHQUAKES Policy on Non Disclosure of Information.


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